Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is set to meet U.S. President Donald Trump in Florida on Sunday for high-stakes talks aimed at shaping a U.S.-backed peace plan to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, as fresh missile and drone attacks ramp up pressure on Kyiv and deepen doubts about whether Moscow would accept any deal. (Reuters)
The sit-down at Trump’s Florida residence is expected to focus on the most sensitive parts of the emerging framework—territory, security guarantees, and control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant—while Zelenskiy also seeks clarity on how the U.S. intends to handle Russia’s red lines after Trump said he held a “very productive” call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. (Reuters)
Why this meeting matters right now
The timing is hard to ignore. As Zelenskiy arrived in Florida, Ukraine was still reeling from large-scale Russian strikes that disrupted power and heat in parts of Kyiv, a reminder that the battlefield and civilian infrastructure remain central leverage points in any negotiation. Zelenskiy has framed the weekend attacks as Russia’s answer to U.S.-brokered peace efforts—an argument likely designed to harden Washington’s stance against concessions made under fire. (Reuters)
At the same time, diplomatic momentum has been building around a 20-point draft proposal that Ukrainian and U.S. negotiators have been refining for weeks. Zelenskiy has said the plan is close to finished, but two core issues remain unresolved: the territorial map and how to manage Europe’s largest nuclear power facility at Zaporizhzhia, now in Russian-controlled territory near the front line. (Reuters)
The peace plan in plain English: what’s in the 20 points
Based on details released by Zelenskiy and his office, the draft framework aims to lock in several Ukrainian priorities while creating a structure for enforcement and reconstruction:
- Sovereignty and non-aggression: The proposal reaffirms Ukraine’s sovereignty and outlines a monitored non-aggression mechanism, including space-based and unmanned oversight of the line of contact. (Reuters)
- Security guarantees: One of the headline elements is a push for security guarantees that “mirror” NATO’s Article 5-style mutual defense—without necessarily requiring Ukraine’s immediate NATO accession. (Reuters)
- Army size: Ukraine would keep its forces at roughly 800,000 personnel, a point Zelenskiy has emphasized after earlier ideas reportedly called for reductions. (Reuters)
- EU track and economic recovery: The plan includes a pathway to EU membership at a defined date and sketches a large reconstruction and development package that Zelenskiy has pegged at $800 billion in mobilized funds. (Reuters)
- Humanitarian and elections provisions: It outlines “all-for-all” prisoner exchanges, the return of detainees and children, and elections after an agreement is signed. (Reuters)
- Enforcement mechanism: A proposed “Peace Council,” chaired by Trump, would monitor implementation and trigger consequences for violations. (Reuters)
In short, Ukraine appears to be trying to secure long-term deterrence and economic survivability while giving the U.S. a prominent role in guaranteeing and policing any deal.
The biggest sticking point: territory
Even supporters of diplomacy acknowledge that “territory” is the cliff edge. Russia has demanded that Ukraine yield all of Donbas, including areas still under Kyiv’s control, while Ukraine wants fighting halted at current battle lines—effectively freezing the map where it is. (Reuters)
The U.S. has floated compromise concepts, including demilitarized zones and a free economic zone tied to Donbas, but key details—how it would work, who would police it, and how sovereignty would be handled—remain unclear. (Reuters)
Zelenskiy has also signaled that if the plan cannot be made acceptable—especially if it requires major withdrawals—he may push for the deal to be put to a referendum, though polling cited in recent reporting suggests Ukrainian voters could reject an arrangement seen as overly favorable to Moscow. (Reuters)
Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant: a second make-or-break issue
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest, has become a geopolitical bargaining chip as well as a security hazard. In the current talks, the U.S. has proposed a joint operation model involving Ukraine, the United States, and Russia with equal stakes—an idea Kyiv has resisted. Zelenskiy’s preferred approach would be a 50–50 U.S.-Ukraine arrangement, with Ukraine receiving half the power output and the U.S. allocating the remainder independently. (Reuters)
Reuters also reported that repairs to power lines have begun after a local ceasefire brokered by the International Atomic Energy Agency, underscoring how fragile and technical this issue is even before politics enters the room. (Reuters)
Trump’s Putin call raises the stakes for Zelenskiy
Just before meeting Zelenskiy, Trump said he had a “very productive” phone call with Putin, without disclosing details; Russian reporting confirmed the call occurred. (Reuters)
That sequence matters because Zelenskiy and several European governments worry that negotiations could tilt toward a quick ceasefire that locks in Russian gains without durable guarantees—leaving Ukraine vulnerable and Europe responsible for long-term stabilization and reconstruction costs. (Reuters)
Europe’s role: present, but not always at the center
European allies have been working in parallel on what a post-war security framework could look like, even as they complain about being cut out of key moments. According to Reuters, Trump and Zelenskiy were also expected to hold a call with European leaders during the Florida meeting—an effort to keep alignment from fraying further. (Reuters)
Zelenskiy has also kept up direct contact with European partners, including a detailed call with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer ahead of the Florida talks, signaling that Kyiv wants Europe tightly involved—both as a security backstop and as a political counterweight if U.S. demands harden. (Reuters)
What Russia has said—and why an agreement is still uncertain
Moscow has continued to insist that any settlement must reflect conditions it outlined previously, including Ukrainian withdrawal from contested regions and an end to Ukraine’s NATO ambitions—positions Ukraine and many European leaders reject as a reward for aggression. (Reuters)
With Russia claiming ongoing battlefield advances and continuing air attacks, negotiators face a familiar dilemma: how to move from a draft framework to a deal that both parties will actually sign—and then follow. (Reuters)
What to watch after the Florida talks
Even if Zelenskiy and Trump close gaps on territory language and nuclear-plant governance, several immediate questions will shape the next phase:
Does Washington publish clearer terms? A move from “framework” to “terms” would raise pressure on Kyiv, Moscow, and European capitals simultaneously. (Reuters)
How is enforcement defined? The “Peace Council” concept is notable, but mechanisms—sanctions triggers, monitoring authority, and response time—will determine credibility. (Reuters)
Is a ceasefire sequenced before or after political decisions? Zelenskiy has indicated major sovereignty decisions would require legitimacy at home, potentially through a referendum or post-agreement elections, which implies sequencing matters as much as substance. (Reuters)
Does Moscow engage—or stall? Without Russia at the table in Florida, the diplomatic test will be whether the Kremlin treats the outcome as a basis for talks or simply as a proposal to outwait. (Reuters)
For Zelenskiy, the Florida meeting is about more than a document. It’s an attempt to keep Ukraine’s core demands—sovereignty, security, and a viable future economy—from being traded away in the name of speed. For Trump, it’s a chance to demonstrate that his White House can force movement in a war that has ground on for nearly four years. Whether those goals can coexist may determine whether the 20-point plan becomes a roadmap—or another draft that collapses under the weight of territory.
0 Comments